Whether or not the Big East is actually the worst BCS conference is irrelevant. Every talking head says it is and that’s what has created a profitable betting environment, especially on the conference’s second level of teams.
Last year, the five teams to finish below .500 in the Big East - Syracuse, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida and UConn - went 17-4 against the spread in non-conference play.
Overall, the Big East is 16-6 straight up in bowl games the past four years. That’s the best mark of any conference. So while the Big East hasn’t produced a national championship game participant in 10 years, it’s proven to be a much more capable conference than the media would like you to believe.
This year is set up to be much of the same. You won’t find any Big East team in the Top 15 of preseason rankings. Syracuse is perceived to be one of the worst BCS teams around. The Sporting News put the Orange 99th in its Preseason 100, behind Kent State and Army, among others. Those are just a few more examples of the media’s tendency to exaggerate how bad the Big East really is.
According to college football pundit Phil Steele, the Big East went 9-9 straight up against other BCS conference schools last season, the second-best record in the nation.
There are some interesting early non-conference games involving Big East teams: Pittsburgh at Utah, Sept. 2; UConn at Michigan, Sept. 4; South Florida at Florida, Sept. 11 and West Virginia at LSU, Sept 25, for example.
If the media keeps piling on the Big East, oddsmakers will be forced to follow suit, which means there will be some value backing the Big East in September.
Big East odds/ends
(ATS records from last three years)
Pittsburgh Panthers
ATS: 21-15 (Home: 8-9, Away: 11-3)
Thing to remember: For a team considered the favourite to win the Big East, the Panthers return just 11 starters - the fewest in the conference. Sophomore quarterback Tino Sunseri is among the new Panthers. Sunseri wasn’t able to earn the starting job outright in spring practice, but the belief is that’s only a psychological coaching maneuver by Dave Wannstedt.
West Virginia Mountaineers
ATS: 16-21 (Home: 6-11, Away: 8-8)
Thing to remember: The Mountaineers are loaded with dynamic weapons like running back Noel Devine and wideout Jock Sanders. The secondary is also extremely talented. But there is some concern at quarterback, where projected starter Gino Smith broke his foot in January and was unable to participate in spring practice. West Virginia’s 16 returning starters are tied with UConn for the most in the conference.
Cincinnati Bearcats
ATS: 20-17 (Home: 8-7, Away: 12-7)
Thing to remember: Don’t underestimate Cincinnati in the post-Brian Kelly era. New coach Butch Jones replaced Kelly at Central Michigan and continued the Chippewas’ success. In his first season succeeding Kelly at CMU, the Chippewas upped their scoring average by 15 points.
South Florida Bulls
ATS: 18-17 (Home: 8-6, Away: 8-10)
Thing to remember: Skip Holtz had instant ATS success at East Carolina. The Pirates went 18-6 against the number in his first two years. Certainly, the perception is that South Florida’s program is in better shape than ECU’s when Holtz took over in 2005, so that will limit the Bulls’ betting value slightly. But there is some big-time talent going through this program, which produced three draft picks in the first 65 selections in this year’s NFL Draft.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
ATS: 20-15 (Home: 8-10, Away: 10-4)
Thing to remember: Rutgers has been an ATS darling since Greg Schiano took over in 2001, especially out of conference. Against non-conference competition, Rutgers is 26-14 ATS since 2001.
Syracuse Orange
ATS: 14-20 (Home: 7-12, Away: 7-8)
Thing to remember: Coaches have said they’ll be increasing the tempo on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Orange is promising to blitz relentlessly. Offensively, you’ll see them in the no-huddle, hurry-up more frequently. Are you listening over players?
Louisville Cardinals
ATS: 12-21 (Home: 6-11, Away: 6-10)
Thing to remember: Charlie Strong inherits a program that has been severely out-coached and out-played in the Big East the past three seasons under ex-coach Steve Kragthorpe. The Cardinals went 5-12 ATS in conference play the past three years - by far the worst ATS record in the league.