NCAA Tournament Final Four will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Butler Bulldogs (-1.5, 125.5)
Spartan fighters
Tom Izzo has now taken Michigan State to a whopping six Final Fours since 1999, but this run has to be the wildest and most improbable of all.
The Spartans have won three of their four NCAA Tournament games by three points or fewer (70-67 over New Mexico State, 85-83 over Maryland, and 70-69 over Tennessee). Against the Terrapins, MSU lost star point guard Kalin Lucas to a torn Achilles and trailed by one point in the waning seconds, but Korie Lucious -Lucas’ backup -nailed a 3-pointer at the buzzer.
Additional adversity is still coming in the form of injuries, as guard Chris Allen (torn ligament in his right arch) and forward Delvon Roe (knee) are dealing with their own physical problems. Allen’s recent practices have involved only shooting and Roe faces offseason surgery.
So far the Spartans (28-8, 15-20 ATS) have overcome everything. Perhaps that’s part of the reason why Butler coach Brad Stevens called Michigan State “one of the great, if not the greatest program in the country over the last 12 years”, in an ESPN interview earlier this week.
But as if all of that isn’t enough for the Spartans, they now have to face a Final Four opponent that is playing in its home city. In fact, Butler is the first team since UCLA in 1972 (Final Four in Los Angeles) to enjoy such an opportunity.
24 in a row
Butler has won an incredible 24 consecutive games (12-12 ATS) heading into Saturday’s national semifinals. The Bulldogs have not lost since a December 22 trip to UAB, where a 67-57 setback dropped them to a pedestrian 8-4 mark. 111 days later, Butler will charge into Lucas Oil Stadium at 32-4 (16-20 ATS).
The last time a Tom Izzo-coached team faced an opponent on such a win streak was in the 1999 Final Four, as Duke rode a 31-game surge at the time. Michigan State succumbed 68-62 to the Blue Devils.
These Bulldogs do not feature NBA lottery picks at multiple positions like those Blue Devils, but the Spartans know what Butler is all about.
“They’re not mid-majors,” Roe told the Grand Rapids Press. “You learn when you play these teams not to underestimate them, or you’ll end up like the other teams they played this year: out.”
“I’m sure their confidence is sky high,” Lucious noted. “They’re going to be real confident because I’m sure they don’t want their winning streak to be snapped. So they’re going to come out with intensity and we’re going to match it.”
Painter of the picture
Purdue faced Michigan State twice this season and shares the state of Indiana with Butler, so Boilermaker head coach Matt Painter is familiar with both participants in Saturday’s first Final Four showdown.
“Butler will push, but they’re selective,” Painter said in a Wednesday teleconference. “If it’s there, they go. If they get a wide-open shot in transition, they take it. But if not, they make you play and break down.
“But Butler doesn’t get the credit they deserve for how tough they are and how good a defensive team they are.”
No team has reached the 60-point mark against the Bulldogs so far in this NCAA Tournament.
Painter, whose team won at Michigan State 76-64 on February 9 before losing to the Spartans 53-44 at home on February 28, said Saturday’s game will be a “race to 60.” In other words, the team that gets to 60 points first wins.
Common opponents
The Bulldogs faced three teams from the Big Ten during the regular season—Northwestern away, Minnesota on a neutral court and Ohio State at home. Butler handled the Wildcats 67-54, fell to the Gophers 82-73 and upset Ohio State 74-66.
Michigan State swept Northwestern with ease, went 2-1 against Minnesota (lost in the conference tournament) and dropped a 74-67 home decision to Ohio State.
Both Michigan State and Butler also faced Valparaiso. The Spartans destroyed Valpo 90-60 at home on November 22. The Bulldogs pulled out a 74-69 road victory on February 26.
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The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on neutral sites (and this is, technically, a neutral site). They are also 25-11 ATS in their last 36 NCAA Tournament contests.
The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against Big Ten opponents.
Both Michigan State (16-18 O/U) and Butler (15-19 O/U) have leaned just slightly toward the under this season. The under is 8-1 in Butler’s last nine overall, but the over is 8-0 in MSU’s last eight against the Horizon League.