This game is being played Sunday in Houston.
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (-4.5, 138.5)
The South Region’s finale matches a pair of teams who have both utilized intimidating defences to reach the Elite Eight and two squads no one would remotely want to face right now.
That was evident when Baylor drilled St. Mary’s or “America’s team”, as Gaels center Omar Samhan dubbed he and his teammates, Friday. Samhan had carried Cinderella St. Mary’s through the first two rounds but, when matched up against the Bears’ fierce 2-3 zone defence, struggled mightily in a 72-49 victory for Baylor.
Duke continued its impressive march through the Big Dance, advancing to the round of eight for the first time since 2004 in its win over Purdue. After leading 24-23 at halftime in what was a defensive struggle, the Blue Devils turned to their offence in the second half in a 70-57 victory.
But it was Duke’s defence and rebounding that once again was the difference in the win. The Blue Devils out-rebounded Purdue 45-to-22 and have a remarkable plus-14.3 rebounding margin for the tournament.
As good as Duke is defensively and crashing/defending the boards, Baylor – the quickest team in the field – might actually be better. This season, the Bears ranked ninth in the entire country in rebounding margin (+7.2) while their opponents have shot only 37 percent from the field in their three tournament victories.
The Blue Devils could have success shooting from the perimeter against Baylor’s zone and it appears Jon Scheyer might have found his shooter’s touch. After shooting just 21 percent from the field in Duke’s first two and a half games of the tournament, the standout guard made 5-of-9 field goals in the second half against Purdue.
The Bears have the added advantage of playing a near-home game. Against St. Mary’s, it was estimated that roughly 25,000 of the 40,000 in attendance at the Reliant Center were wearing Baylor green and gold.
“Baylor Nation was here,” said forward Quincy Acy, “and they were out and strong, and brought more fuel to us.”
This game should be close and picking its winner is a tough call. Either way, whichever team plays its way to the Final Four in Indianapolis, Baylor covers the points.
Prediction: Baylor 70, Duke 68