Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Colorado Buffaloes (-1.5)
The Big 12 Tourney’s opening game features two of the five conference teams not making the Big Dance, unless one can make a miraculous run over the next four days.
Nevertheless, this game, featuring teams going in opposite directions, might be the most entertaining of the tournament’s first round.
Texas Tech started the season 9-0 and was ranked 16th in the nation in early December. The Red Raiders have been horrid lately. They’re on a seven-game losing streak, going 2-5 ATS in that span.
While enjoying its best season since the 2005-06 campaign, Colorado won its final three games for the first time in seven years to end the regular season. The Buffaloes are led by guard Cory Higgins, who has averaged 22.3 points the last six games.
The last time these teams played against each other was last Saturday — a 101-90 Colorado victory. Just four days later, I expect more of the same as the Buffaloes continue to gain momentum.
Final score prediction: Colorado 86, Texas Tech 79
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Missouri Tigers (-10.5)
Nebraska has led the Big 12 in scoring defence the previous two seasons. However, the Cornhuskers were not nearly as unyielding this year and got worse as the season wore on. After allowing an average of just 66.4 points in its first nine Big 12 games, they gave up 81.1 points over their last seven.
Missouri also struggled down the stretch, losing two of its final three games (0-3 ATS) with its lone win coming against Iowa State in overtime. Prior to that, the Tigers were 9-4 both SU and ATS in conference play.
Regardless, the Tigers are one of the deepest teams in the country. Nine players average 12 minutes and 3.4 points or more per game.
Most importantly, Missouri has been absolutely dominant this season when facing poor and sub-par squads and Nebraska certainly falls into that category. In two losses this year to the Tigers, the Cornhuskers were outscored by an average of 16 points.
Final score prediction: Missouri 72, Nebraska 60
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7.5)
This intrastate rivalry isn’t what it once was as the Oklahoma program, a 30-game winner only a year ago, has fallen on very hard times. The Sooners will finish with a losing season for the first time since 1982 while their current eight-game losing streak is their longest in 41 years.
Oklahoma has been almost as bad against the number, dropping nine of its last 12.
After getting defeated by the rival Sooners in mid-January, the Cowboys got revenge a month later winning by 21 points in Stillwater. Guard James Anderson led Oklahoma State with 31 points against Oklahoma.
Anderson ranks first in the Big 12 in scoring and was recently recognized as the conference’s player of the year. In his last seven games he is averaging 25 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, while the Cowboys have gone 5-2 SU and ATS during that stretch.
I’m really surprised the line is set as low as it is for this game. I expect Oklahoma to easily extend its losing streak, State to continue its upswing, and the game’s result to be along the same lines as the teams’ last meeting.
Final score prediction: Oklahoma State 79, Oklahoma 63
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Texas Longhorns (-7.5)
How the mighty have fallen. Texas was 17-0 and ranked No. 1 in the nation in mid-January. Texas has lost eight of its last 14 games and has become only the fifth college basketball team ever to fall from atop the rankings to completely out of the polls. Perhaps even more telling, Texas is 3-15 ATS after a 7-2 start.
About the only consistency the Longhorns have had is the play from guard Damion James. James, a Wooden Award finalist and one of only two unanimous All-Big 12 selections (Anderson of OSU the other), is averaging nearly 18 points and more than 10 rebounds per game.
James and his Longhorn teammates should be on upset alert against Iowa State. After losing to Colorado by just three points and then Missouri by two in overtime, the Cyclones defeated Kansas State 85-82 in overtime to end the regular season—Iowa State’s first win over a ranked opponent in 22 tries.
The Cyclones are led by its forward tandem of Marquis Gilstrap and Craig Brackins. Gilstrap is the only Big 12 player to average a double-double in conference play (15.3 ppg, 10.3 ppg) while Brackins (16.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg) has 31 double-doubles in his career.
Texas will likely defeat Iowa State but it should be a little closer than the line suggests.
Final score prediction: Texas 80, Iowa State 76